Ranking the NFL’s Worst Drafts of the 21st CenturyThe NFL Draft can make or break franchises. Some teams strike gold, finding franchise players who change the course of a franchise for years. Others stumble — selecting busts, missing opportunities, or accumulating so many mistakes that recovery becomes painfully slow. This article ranks the NFL’s worst drafts of the 21st century, explains why each draft failed, highlights the key bad picks and missed opportunities, and looks at the long-term consequences for each franchise.
Criteria for “Worst Draft”
To judge the worst drafts, I considered:
- Number and impact of high-round busts (especially 1st and 2nd round picks).
- Missed opportunities: players available who became stars.
- Cumulative negative effect on team roster, salary cap, and draft capital.
- How long it took the franchise to recover (if at all).
Using those measures, the following drafts stand out as the most damaging since 2000.
1) 2007 Miami Dolphins
Why it’s bad: The 2007 Dolphins are often cited as a textbook example of a franchise draft gone wrong. Miami made a series of choices that failed to deliver long-term talent, while bypassing multiple players who became Pro Bowlers and key contributors.
Key failed picks:
- 2nd overall — JaMarcus Russell (QB): Signed a massive contract, performed poorly, and lasted only a few seasons. Russell’s arm talent didn’t translate to NFL success; poor work ethic and inability to learn pro systems contributed to an early exit.
- Several mid-round misses and limited long-term contributors.
Missed opportunities: Players available included players such as Calvin Johnson (2nd overall actually taken before Russell; note: Dolphins traded down in the real 2007 draft leading to Russell at 1), Marshawn Lynch (later rounds), and other impact players that reshaped other rosters.
Long-term impact: The Russell pick set the franchise back at quarterback for years and cost draft capital and cap space. It also eroded trust in the front office and scouting.
2) 2013 Cleveland Browns
Why it’s bad: The Browns’ 2013 draft is notorious for its lack of high-value picks and failure to address key roster needs. The team selected several players who either underperformed or had short careers.
Key failed picks:
- 1st round — Justin Gilbert (CB): Struggled with coverage and consistency; short NFL career.
- 2nd round — Barkevious Mingo (DE): High expectations but limited pass-rush production.
- Additional picks contributed little to turnaround.
Missed opportunities: Several linebackers, defensive backs, and other prospects who became productive players were available and could have eased roster weaknesses.
Long-term impact: Continued instability at multiple positions, contributing to years of losing seasons and coaching turnover.
3) 2014 Oakland Raiders
Why it’s bad: The Raiders accumulated several early-round players who didn’t develop as hoped. The team also traded up in earlier years and used picks on players who produced inconsistent results.
Key failed picks:
- 1st round — Derek Carr (QB) — Note: Carr became productive; however, later rounds and surrounding picks failed to support the team consistently.(See caveat below.)
- 2014 picks overall produced spotty contributors and failed to address trench play and secondary needs sufficiently.
Missed opportunities: Offensive line and defensive playmakers who could have stabilized the roster.
Long-term impact: A mash-up of moderate success at QB with insufficient surrounding talent slowed playoff consistency until later rebuilds.
4) 2006 Washington Redskins
Why it’s bad: Washington’s 2006 draft is remembered for its headline-making picks that didn’t pan out and missed opportunities to pick higher-ceiling players.
Key failed picks:
- First-round selections and early picks failed to become long-term starters, with injuries and underperformance limiting their impact.
- The team bypassed several future Pro Bowl-caliber players at nearby draft spots.
Missed opportunities: Skill-position players and defensive talent that could have reshaped the roster.
Long-term impact: The poor returns lengthened a rebuilding timeline and led to more roster churn in subsequent drafts.
5) 2016 Tennessee Titans
Why it’s bad: The Titans used high picks on players who didn’t immediately or consistently manifest as franchise cornerstones, while bypassing impact players in the same draft.
Key failed picks:
- Several early choices provided mixed returns; some picks were later traded or cut.
- The team struggled to find consistent contributors on defense.
Missed opportunities: Players who became key starters for other clubs were available.
Long-term impact: The franchise experienced uneven progress and had to revisit roster construction in ensuing seasons.
Honorable mentions (bad but not top 5)
- 2009 St. Louis Rams — several early picks didn’t become long-term answers.
- 2015 Buccaneers — a few high picks injured or underperformed, slowing momentum.
- 2012 Minnesota Vikings — underwhelming early returns relative to expectations.
Caveats and nuance
- Draft evaluation is partly retrospective: some picks looked smart at the time but age, injuries, or coaching changes altered outcomes.
- Teams’ scouting, coaching, and development pipelines matter: a “bad” draft often reflects systemic issues beyond the player alone.
- Some drafts contain a mix of hits and misses; a single star can redeem a draft in public memory even if most picks fail.
Conclusion
The worst drafts of the 21st century are notable not just for the bad picks themselves but for cascade effects: lost opportunities, salary commitments, and the loss of momentum. The 2007 Miami Dolphins and 2013 Cleveland Browns stand out because their drafts significantly set back each franchise for multiple seasons. Drafts are never completely predictable, but these examples underscore the value of scouting, player development, and disciplined decision-making.
If you want, I can expand any team’s section with player-by-player breakdowns, available alternatives at each pick, and how those players’ careers compared statistically.
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